488
FXUS66 KLOX 192214
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
214 PM PST Thu Feb 19 2026
.SYNOPSIS...19/136 PM.
It will be cool and breezy through this evening followed by a
very chilly Friday before a slow warming trend begins for the
weekend. Chances for rain next week are looking less and less as
high pressure builds over the area with much warmer temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...19/200 PM.
Most of today`s storm has passed but there are still a few lines
of showers in northwest flow that will drop scattered showers
through early evening. Due to the terrain the best chances for
those would be in the mountains and along the Central Coast. Rain
amounts varied from around a half inch to close to an inch. In LA
the valleys mostly ended up around a half inch or less but the LA
Basin, including Downtown and west LA overachieved with close to
an inch.
Winds and mountain snows are the main hazards left. Winds have
shifted to the west and are gusting to 40 mph across the coast and
some valleys and as high as 65 mph in the mountains and very close
to the Antelope Valley. Advisories and warnings are in effect in
all areas through this evening.
Snow levels have risen to around 5000 feet this afternoon but not
before some light snow dusted the Grapevine again this morning.
There is another chance of low elevation snow again early Friday
morning over the Grapevine and surrounding mountains as winds
aloft veer to the north creating some enhancement of showers
there overnight. For that reason Winter Storm Warnings remain in
effect through 7am Friday.
It will be a very cold start in most areas Friday morning as
clouds clear out and winds die off. Expecting to see many valleys
in the 30s and coastal areas in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Highs
tomorrow will likely top out around 60 for most coast/valley
areas, 5-10 degrees below normal.
A warming trend will begin Saturday and continue into next week,
though mornings will still be quite cool.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...19/212 PM.
The weekend warming trend is expected to continue through Monday
or Tuesday as models continue to shift back towards a high
pressure ridge along the West coast and light offshore flow
returns. By Monday, highs will be well into the 70s away from the
immediate coast with a 20% chance of 80 in the warmest valleys.
Chances for rain for the middle of next week have been decreasing
with each model run. Officially there is still a 20-40% chance of
rain but based on the trends the last couple days would expect the
chances to drop below 15% in the next day or two. The ridge does
get knocked down a little and offshore flow will likely flip to
onshore Wed/Thu leading to a slight cooling trend for a day or
two, but highs will likely remain above normal into next weekend,
with a possibility of highs rebounding back up close to 80.
&&
.AVIATION...19/1650Z.
At 1645Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or marine inversion.
Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF package. Timing of rain
could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There will be a 10%
chance of TSTMs through this afternoon. CIGs and VSBYs will
bounce between VFR and MVFR levels through this afternoon. For
tonight, VFR conditions are expected for all areas.
Gusty westerly winds can be expected through this evening.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of rain and
associated MVFR conditions could be +/- 2 hours of current
forecasts this afternoon. Southeasterly winds around 8-10 knots
will shift to a southwesterly direction by 20Z (if not an hour
earlier).
KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of rain and
associated MVFR conditions could be +/- 2 hours of current
forecasts this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...19/1139 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through this evening, high confidence in GALE FORCE
winds with Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas. Overnight and
through Friday afternoon, high confidence in combination of SCA
level winds and seas. For Saturday, there is a 20-30% chance of
SCA level winds, especially across PZZ670. For Sunday through
Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. GALE FORCE winds will continue through this
evening with SCA level seas, then winds and seas will drop below
SCA levels on Friday. For Saturday through Tuesday, winds and seas
are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in
current forecast. GALE FORCE winds through this evening will drop
to SCA levels overnight. For Friday through Tuesday, winds and
seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Warning remains in effect until 9 PM PST this
evening for zones 38-344-345-353-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
for zones 87-88-340>343-346>352-354>358-362-366>376-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Friday for zones
340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Friday evening for
zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 7 AM PST Friday
for zones 353-376>382. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones
645-650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
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