399
FXUS66 KLOX 301110
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
310 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026
.SYNOPSIS...30/234 AM.
Very warm conditions will continue through the weekend, with high
temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Cooling with dense
fog will bring a brief break around Monday, with warming again
starting Tuesday or Wednesday. Gusty Santa Ana winds will be
common through Saturday, and again Tuesday through Thursday of
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...30/255 AM.
Weak to locally moderate Santa Ana winds will continue through
early Sunday, with only minor day-to-day changes. While winds will
be similar to a touch weaker than Thursday, ended up issuing
another low-end Wind Advisory for today for just the windiest
locations of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. These winds could
knock around some unsecured objects and create a few hazards on
the roads. When combining these winds with an upper-level ridge
of high pressure, which will peak today, temperatures will remain
very warm for January - making us the envy of the rest of the
country. Look for highs in the upper 70s and 80s common for most
of the coastal and valley areas through the weekend, with today
likely being the warmest and Sunday the least warm. A few records
are possible today, as forecast highs are within a degree or two
to the calendar day records for LAX, Downtown LA, Long Beach,
Burbank, Woodland Hills, and UCLA. With the very dry airmass,
overnight temperatures will be cool to mild, except for where the
winds stay up. With this daily nighttime relief, Heat Advisories
will not be needed.
Cannot completely discount some very localized coastal dense fog
forming on Sunday, as the offshore flow quickly weakens, but that
threat seems more favorable for Monday.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...30/307 AM.
High pressure aloft will weaken Monday through early Tuesday,
while offshore pressure gradients and winds turn near neutral.
This will cause temperatures to drop a few degrees compared to the
weekend, but all areas should remain well above normal with highs
generally in the 70s. Dense fog with very low visibility is
likely to impact some coastal areas, but unsure exactly how much
of the area will be affected.
This trend will reverse course once again Tuesday through Thursday
as offshore flow and upper level ridging returns. The majority of
the ensembles favor wind speeds similar to a touch stronger to our
current wind event, as gradients look similar but there is a
little more upper level support. Expecting a few more Wind
Advisories and temperatures pushing back into the 80s. There is a
good consensus for a trend towards onshore flow and a cooling
airmass for Friday, but there is no clear signal for just how
much.
There are no rain chances through Friday February 6. Chances
increase a little after that, peaking in the February 9th through
14th window at about 50 percent. The vast majority of the ensemble
solutions that show rain have light amounts, with a slim minority
showing more significant amounts. The past couple of signals like
this two weeks out ended up fizzling away into dryness, so not
putting too much stock in this potential. With that pessimism
established, there is at least something to hope for if you are
looking for precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...30/1054Z.
Around 0730Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX. There was a
surface-based inversion up to around 1400 feet with a temperature
near 22 degrees Celsius.
Generally high confidence exists in the current forecast. VFR
conditions are expected at all terminals, except for a moderate
chance of VLIFR conditions at KPRB through 17Z. There is
a moderate to high chance of moderate turbulence and low-level
through 20Z, and again after 03Z Saturday.
KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Any
easterly winds should remain less than 7 knots.
KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a
20 percent chance of moderate turbulence and low-level through
16Z, and again after 03Z Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...30/308 AM.
Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher
confidence exists in the forecast for winds relative to forecast
for seas.
For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and including the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there
is a high to likely (50-70 percent) chance of Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) conditions through this morning. SCA level seas will likely
be the primary driver this morning. Winds and seas should drop
below SCA levels later today through Saturday, then winds and seas
will start to increase again with a moderate to high (30-50
percent) chance of SCA conditions returning between Saturday night
and Tuesday.
Inside the southern California bight, areas of SCA level north to
northeast winds are expected for the nearshore coastal waters off
the Ventura County Coast to Malibu each morning through Saturday.
There is a likely (60-80 percent) chance of SCA level winds this
morning, dropping to a high to likely (50 to 70 percent) chance
tonight through Saturday morning. The highest chance of SCA
conditions will be from around Point Mugu south and east to
Pacific Palisades. Winds and seas should drop below SCA levels on
Saturday and continue at or below SCA levels through the weekend
and into Tuesday. A return of SCA level northeast winds is
possible between Tuesday night and Thursday.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon for
zones 88-374-375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST this morning
for zones 655-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RK
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...RK
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
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