978
FXUS66 KLOX 011541
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
841 AM PDT Wed Apr 1 2026
.SYNOPSIS...01/1247 AM.
It will be cooler today with a clearing skies. Gusty north to
northeast winds will develop tonight and last through Saturday. A
moderate Santa Ana is possible Friday and Saturday. Much warmer
temperatures with mostly sunny skies are expected this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...01/840 AM.
***UPDATE***
Quite the overperforming rainfall event last night especially
across coastal and valley locations of Ventura and LA county.
Total rainfall amounts averaged 0.25-0.75" with isolated spots
over an 1". The far interior (including the antelope valley)
ranged from 0.1"-0.25". NWS OXNARD measured 1.14" of rain.
Rainfall rates were also impressive with pockets of 0.75" to
nearly an inch - Notably across the Oxnard/Camarillo area.
***From Previous Discussion***
A cold front currently over LA county will move out of the area
just before dawn. Skies will slowly clear through the day. There
is a weak post frontal trof that may bring a brief morning shower
to SLO county. The front will bring in a little more cool air than
was expected ydy and max temps will fall 2 to 4 degrees despite
additional afternoon sunshine. Most max temps will end up in the
60s today across the csts/vlys or 4 to 8 degrees under normals.
There will be increasing offshore flow from the north this evening
and overnight. Mtn winds 30 to 40 mph are likely but no advisories
are anticipated.
Dry fairly fast moving NW flow will be over the area Thursday.
Skies will be sunny. The brisk upper flow will bring gusty winds
to the mtns and the Antelope Vly. Most cst/vly locations will see
a couple of degrees of warming and this will bring some lower 70
degree readings to the vlys. The interior will cool 2 to 4
degrees as cooler air from the San Joaquin Vly is brought in by
the northerly flow.
On Thursday night a good north push arrive and low end advisory
gusts of 40-50 MPH across the I-5 Corridor and the Santa Barbara
county mountains will likely develop.
Towards dawn the north push will turn to the NE as high pressure
builds into the Great Basin. About 5 mb of offshore flow from both
the N and E will develop. This rapid increase in offshore flow
will likely create low end advisory level gusts from 35 to 45 mph
with some local gusts to 55 mph in the mtns. At the upper levels a
ridge will build into the state and hgts will rise to 576 dam.
Skies will be sunny and this along the rising hgts and offshore
flow will kick off a big warm up. Almost all sites will see 8 to
10 degrees of warming with max temps reaching into the 70s and
lower 80s, which is about 4 to 8 degrees above normal.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...01/323 AM.
Weak ridging is on tap for the weekend. Hgts will not climb too
high, however, only reaching ~576 dam. Offshore flow will remain
although it will be weaker than it was on Friday. Skies will be
mostly clear through the period. It will be a warm weekend, for
sure, with max temp warming and additional 2 to 4 degrees on
Saturday. The coastal areas will cool some Sunday as the weakening
offshore flow allows for an earlier seabreeze. Inland areas will
see another 2 to 4 degrees of warming. Max temps over the weekend
will be in the 70s across the csts and lower to mid 80s across the
vlys.
On Monday a trof will push the ridge to the east and hgts will
fall. The offshore flow turns onshore and this will lead to 3 to 6
degrees of cooling across the board. Despite this cooling max
temps will end up 4 to 8 degrees above normal.
There is some disagreement on the upper level pattern on Tuesday.
The GFS has more of a trof like pattern while the EC favors
ridging. The ensembles lean towards the EC and brings 2 to 4
degrees of warming to most areas.
The AI-GFS is dry through the next 14 days. The AI-EC however does
show a system in the area around the 11th. Both mdls continue to
indicate continued above normal max temps.
&&
.AVIATION...01/1028Z.
At 0822Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
Moderate confidence in all TAFs cigs and vis will likely vary
during the morning hours and clouds and mist form in the wake of
last nights rains. There will be ocnl dips in to IFR values.
Better confidence in clearing conditions after 18Z. Less
confidence in low clouds arrival and hgts after 02/02Z.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cig and vis will vary as clouds
and mist form dissipate and reform from the leftover moisture.
Good confidence in better conditions 20Z-02Z. Low confidence on
timing of lower cigs after 02Z where MVFR conds could arrive as
late as 08Z and cigs as low as BKN012. No significant east wind
component expected.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cig and vis will vary as clouds
and mist form dissipate and reform from the leftover moisture.
Good confidence in better conditions 20Z-02Z. Better confidence in
TAF aft 20Z.
&&
.MARINE...01/736 AM.
High confidence in winds and seas staying under Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) levels through this morning. A few isolated post
frontal showers could linger through the afternoon north of Pt
Concpetion
SCA winds with a chance of low-end GALES is expected to develop
for the coastal waters south of Point Conception (including
nearshore and the Santa Barbara Channel) this evening and
overnight. These winds will become widespread Thursday and will
last through Friday morning.
Expecting seas to build quickly on Thursday, peaking Thursday
night. Seas could reach SCA levels 10-12 feet over the outer
waters and inner waters north of Point Sal. Seas for the southern
inner waters could peak around 4 to 7 feet. Wave heights should
drop off rather quickly as winds shift to the northeast Friday
morning.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT
Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3
AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Thursday to 11 AM
PDT Friday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 11
AM PDT Friday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Rorke/Black
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Black/Phillips
SYNOPSIS...Munroe
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
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