717
FXUS66 KSGX 031837
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1137 AM PDT Sat Oct 3 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
An area of high pressure will remain over the Desert Southwest
through much of the upcoming week, leading to a prolonged period of
hot daytime temperatures and warm nights mainly west of the
mountains. Breezy Santa Ana winds will continue today and Sunday,
highest near the coastal-facing mountain slopes. The peak of the
heat will be this weekend, but confidence is still low on how long
the heat lasts into the end of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
Santa Ana winds have been observed this morning. East flow around an
area of high pressure has resulted in gusts near 30-45 MPH across
the San Diego County mts/foothills. Gusty winds and lower relative
humidity each day will lead to elevated to near-critical fire
weather conditions, so make sure to do your part that leads to one
less spark! East winds have even made it to the coast this morning,
shooting temperatures up into the 90s along the beaches. Onshore
winds will start to take hold this afternoon, knocking temperatures
down 5-10 degrees.
Hot weather will continue into early next week, as an area of high
pressure anchors over our region. Today and Sunday will likely be
the warmest days as weaker offshore flow prevails. The high will
weaken slightly and move more toward the southwest as we go into the
early part of next week. This will allow increased onshore flow
closer to the coast, bringing a few degrees of cooling. Nights will
still remain warm for many areas in the lower to mid 70s west of the
mountains. The mountains and deserts will still be warm for this
time of year with highs near 5 to 10 degrees above normal, but not
as intense as places west of the mountains. Mountain areas like
Julian and Big Bear will be in the 70s and 80s for most of this
event. Areas 3000-6000 ft will also see low temperatures well above
normal. Please make sure to be in areas of A/C and check on those
without effective cooling.
By Friday, most models begin to diverge on the high starting to
weaken as a trough to the north begins to enter the Pacific NW. The
progression of this trough is still uncertain, and will help
determine how cool we get by the end of next week. By Friday,
greater onshore cooling looks to spread inland helping to lower
temperatures mainly into the 80s and 90s west of the mountains.
Further cooling may occur if the trough is strong enough to push
further south into California by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
031800Z...Coast/western valleys: East/southeast winds along the
coast will begin to turn onshore by the 19Z hour. E winds near 15-
20kts in the the valleys will weaken later this afternoon.
Otherwise, mostly clear with VFR conditions through the period.
Inland Valleys/Foothills/Mountains: East winds over west-facing
foothills, inland valleys and in parts of the Inland Empire and San
Diego County will be gusting near 20-35 kts, locally over 40 kts,
through the afternoon. MOD UDDFS expected until 01Z Sun, with winds
becoming more localized to the mountains.
Otherwise...Clear skies through the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for Orange County
Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and
Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County
Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains
and Foothills.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for Orange County
Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino and
Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County
Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass near
Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...APR
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