778
FXUS66 KSGX 100754
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1254 AM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the eastern Pacific will keep temperatures
slightly above normal through early next week across Southern
California. Moderate HeatRisk is expected for the deserts each
day with localized Major HeatRisk in the lower deserts over the
weekend. The marine layer will remain relatively shallow with
morning clouds remaining confined to coastal areas and western
valleys through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
Satellite imagery shows low clouds struggling to form over coastal
areas early this morning. This may be somewhat attributed to
anomalously warm sea surface temperatures keeping the marine layer
inversion slightly weaker than usual. However, the HREF maintains
that marine layer clouds will fill into coastal areas and western
valleys by sunrise this morning. With the upper pattern holding
steady over the next few days, the expectation is for morning
clouds to continue for these areas through the weekend.
Thereafter, the marine layer may deepen slightly going into early
next week.
An upper ridge centered over the eastern Pacific will provide just
enough influence to keep both high and low temperatures slightly
above normal from today onward for the coast to the mountains and
5 to 10 degrees above normal in the deserts. Record highs do not
look to be threatened, though a few record high lows may occur
near the coast, aided by the aforementioned warm SSTs. Moderate
HeatRisk is expected for all desert locations and portions of the
Inland Empire from Thursday through early next week.
Weak ridging over the south-central CONUS will be positioned such
that elevated PWATs are expected to move into the region from the
south by Friday. NBM currently indicates that temperatures will
reach the low 100s in the High Desert and graze 110 in the lower
deserts this weekend. However, depending on the strength of this
moisture surge, temperatures may be a few degrees lower than
anticipated. At the very least, increased coverage of high clouds
is expected over the region through the weekend.
By early next week, the ridge over the eastern Pacific will weaken
slightly as it migrates toward the western CONUS. Most ensembles
show anomalies in upper heights centered over the Pacific
Northwest, while the Southwest is largely spared of increasing
heights. In fact, the NBM shows a few degrees of cooling across
the region through early next week. Model solutions diverge
further by mid-to-late next week, but ensembles lean toward
further cooling with increased chances for upper troughing over
the western CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...
100430Z...Coast/Valleys...Low clouds based 1000-1500 ft MSL are
slowly moving into coastal San Diego County this evening. Expect low
clouds to fill into coastal areas and western valleys from south to
north overnight reaching 10-15 miles inland by 12z. Minor vis
reductions (4-6SM) for elevated coastal terrain. Clouds scatter to
the coast by 16-17z. Low clouds with similar bases return to coastal
areas starting 02-04z Thu.
Mountains/Deserts...VFR and SKC through Wednesday. SW/W wind gusts
near 25-35 kts along desert slopes and through passes will taper off
after 06z.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Elevated surf and rip current activity expected through Thursday
afternoon. Surf peaks on Wednesday with surf 4-8 feet and sets up to
10 feet at south-facing beaches, then gradually diminishes late this
week. See the Beach Hazards Statement for more details.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday afternoon for Orange
County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KW
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...KW
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