511 FXUS66 KLOX 311039 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 339 AM PDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .SYNOPSIS...31/247 AM. Rain chances continue through much of the weekend, with the peak of the rain likely occuring Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Warmer and drier conditions expected next week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...31/338 AM. Still a somewhat low confidence forecast even as the system is basically at our doorstep. Certainly rain amounts will be higher to the south given the current orientation and trajectory of the storm. Precipitable water values are still around 1.5" south of of Pt Conception which is reasonably high for this area. And satellite images show some cooling cloud tops as the front edge of the storm is just now reaching the coast. However, the 00z models definitely dialed down the rain amounts, by almost 50% from previous runs, which could be an indication that the storm will be sliding more to the south. In any case, despite some favorable features, this storm is unlikely to generate too many impacts with rain rates expected to remain below a half inch per hour, and in most areas well below that. Latest high res models are generally following the downward trend in rain amounts, but still maintain some small chances (20-30%) of rain totals around an inch in favorable upslope areas like Santa Barbara and the Santa Monica Mountains. But even those totals would not likely pose any problems. Perhaps the biggest impact of this storm will be on the trick-or-treaters outside on Saturday evening which is likely when rain intensities start increasing. But there is still uncertainty with this as well as some of the higher res models are holding off the heavier rain rates until after 9pm, especially in LA County. In any case, be prepared for at least some light rain in the late afternoon and evening. Rain Saturday night will taper off Sunday morning for all except far south and east LA County. And dry everywhere by Sunday afternoon. Additional warming Monday with a high pressure returning to the West coast but most areas still in the 60s and 70s. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...31/336 AM. For the extended, models start out in good agreement on Tuesday, but then start to diverge noticeably Wednesday through Friday. On Tuesday, the upper level ridge will still be over the area with weak offshore surface flow. So, will expect clear skies, comfortable temperatures (upper 60s and 70s) and some weak offshore winds. Models are in pretty unanimous agreement in maintaining a dry weather pattern through the end of next week, but temperatures still either near or slightly below normal. And no signs of any significant offshore patterns developing. The high pressure ridge is expected to remain in place at least through early the next week (week of Nov 9), but there are indications of another upper low moving into the Pac NW later in that week. && .AVIATION...31/0616Z. At 06Z at KLAX, there was no inversion or marine layer. Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF Package. VFR CIGs with occasional periods of MVFR conditions except for KPMD/KWJF. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR CIGs with occasional periods of MVFR. Isolated -SHRA before 31/10Z, followed by occasional to intermittent -RA thereafter. 60% chance of east wind component reaching 7-8kts & 25% chance of 10 kts. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR CIGs with periods of MVFR expected. -SHRA chances increase after 31/12Z. && .MARINE...30/836 PM. Moderate confidence in winds and seas staying below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) through Saturday evening, except for a low chance of brief gusty downdraft winds with any heavier showers Saturday. A marine weather statement (MWSLOX) has been issued to highlight the very low, but present risk for isolated waterspouts through Saturday morning across the inner waters south of Pt Conception including nearshore (PZZ650/655). SCA-level NW winds likely to form Saturday Night and Sunday from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, including the western Santa Barbara Channel. NE winds under SCA-levels likely to follow on Monday. SCA-level NW winds will return Tuesday afternoon roughly across the same waters. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...MW/Black MARINE...DB/RK SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
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