000
FXUS66 KLOX 270708
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1208 AM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...26/159 PM.
An upper-level trough of low pressure will continue to move over
the region through tonight. Any shower activity will likely be
across the northern portion of the area and along the northern
slopes of the mountains and into the San Gabriel Mountains and the
San Gabriel Valley. A tightening pressure difference across the
region will bring gusty and potentially damaging winds to the
region through tonight. Otherwise, dry weather can be expected
along with gradually warmer temperatures this weekend into the
middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...26/845 PM.
***UPDATE***
Quite an active weather day. An inside slider moved down the CA/NV
border and is now in AZ. The trof did bring quite a few showers to
the upslope areas and a few showers even made it out of the mtns
and into the vlys. Rainfall totals were under a a tenth of an
inch. Snow levels were over 6500 ft and no measurable snowfall
was reported.
Winds were the major talking point today. West to east pressure
gradients peaked today near 8mb and this drove advisory level
westerly winds into the coastal areas. The inside slider brought
increasing offshore flow from the north as well as good upper
level support and this brought warning level winds to the I-5
corridor and western AV with advisory levels winds across the rest
of the mtns.
The westerly winds are subsiding as the W to E gradients relaxes
the northerly winds will continue til a few hours past midnight
until the cool air advection stops.
A forecast update will be issued after 900 pm to clean out the
expired wind advisories and reduce the shower coverage.
***From Previous Discussion***
A warming and drying trend will develop through the weekend as an
upper-level ridge developing off the Pacific Northwest coast will
drop south into the state through Saturday night. Enough of
northerly pressure gradient could remain to continue another round
of gusty winds through the Interstate 5 Corridor and across
southern Santa Barbara County Saturday night and into Sunday. While
a weak semblance of a marine layer depth remains as a deep moist
layer today, a return of low clouds and fog should take place over
the weekend as onshore flow strengthens. The forecast brings in
some mention of low clouds and fog as early Sunday morning along
the Central Coast and into southern Los Angeles County.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...26/326 PM.
A general ridge pattern looks to remain in place into early next
week and keep a warming trend in the mix. Forecast ensembles do
disagree on how warm it will get as there is a quite a mix of
solutions into Monday and beyond. An onshore flow pattern will
remain in place through at least the early portion of next week,
but there could be a more-entrenched marine layer depth that
develops if onshore flow strengthens in combination with a
strengthening ridge aloft. If this occurs, the warming trend
could be more muted along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION...27/0703Z.
At 0530Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
Good confidence in flight cat fcst at all sites. Wind speeds may
be off by +/- 10kt through 16Z.
KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of an 8 kt
east wind component through 18Z.
KBUR...Good confidence in TAF.
&&
.MARINE...26/1045 PM.
In the Outer Waters, NW winds are at/approaching gale force, and
will continue much of the time through late Sat night, with a
brief drop in winds to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level late
tonight in the northern zone (PZZ670). There is a 50-60% chance
of gales returning to the northern zone (PZZ670) Sat evening into
Sat night. SCA level winds and seas are expected for all the
outer waters after the gales subside, and will last through Tue.
There is another chance (50-70%) of gale force winds Sun through
Tue, with the highest chances during the afternoon and evening
hours.
In the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, NW winds are at/near gale
force, and will drop to SCA level later tonight. SCA level
winds/seas are expected much of the time Sun through Tue night,
with a 30% chance of gales during afternoon and evening hours Sun
and Mon.
In the Inner Waters S Pt Conception, widespread W winds are
at/near gale force. Gales for all the nearshore waters will
likely continue thru late tonight, then decrease to SCA level.
Then, SCA level wind and seas are likely to continue much of the
time through late Sun night, (possibly Mon night in the western
SBA Channel), with the strongest winds during the late afternoon
thru late evening hours. There is a 50% chance of gales across the
western portions of the SBA Channel late Sat afternoon into late
Sat night, with a 20% chance elsewhere during that time.
Widespread strong to gale force winds will create dangerous sea
conditions across the coastal waters thru the weekend, with
short-period, steep, and choppy waves. There may be dangerous
breaking waves near west-facing harbors. Mariners should remain in
safe harbor until conditions improve.
&&
.BEACHES...26/311 PM.
Into Saturday morning, low level high surf is expected for west-
facing beaches of Los Angeles/Ventura county and Catalina Island
(4-7 feet, local sets to 8), and northwest to west- facing beaches
along the Central Coast (7-10 feet). Moderate confidence in
heights and surf will be choppy and rough, with a high risk of rip
currents through Sunday.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT early this
morning for zones 87-88-352-353-356-375>377-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT this morning for
zones 87-340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning remains in effect until 3 AM PDT early this
morning for zones 378-381-383-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
zones 645-650-655-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones
673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Hall/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Phillips/Schoenfeld
BEACHES...DB/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Hall
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
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