328
FXUS66 KLOX 221007
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
307 AM PDT Wed Apr 22 2026
.SYNOPSIS...22/1201 AM.
Mostly clear skies with warming temperatures will occur today
through Friday. Look for gusty northwest winds this afternoon and
evening. A weak storm with light rain is possible sometime this
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...22/306 AM.
The low pressure system that brought rain to the area ydy is
pulling out of the state to the NE and brisk westerly flow is
setting up over Srn CA. Skies will be mostly clear today save for
some mountain clouds. The westerly winds aloft will help drive
gusty winds in the Antelope Vly this afternoon and evening as well
as bringing stronger than normal westerly sea breezes to the
coastal areas. Most areas will see a few degrees of warming today
due to the extra sunshine. The Central Coast will be the exception
where the enhanced sea breeze will bring a few degrees of
cooling.
Overnight the flow will switch to a more northerly direction and
there will be gusty north winds through the I-5 corridor and the
SBA south coast. Right now it looks like these gusts will come in
just under advisory levels.
Thursday will start off with some weak offshore winds enough to
chase away any threat of low clouds, but not strong enough to
warrant any advisories. Rising hgts, late April sunshine and weak
offshore flow will allow combine to bring 3 to 6 degrees of
warming to the entire area. Most csts and vlys will see highs in
the 70s with a smattering of 80 degree readings in the warmest
vlys. Most cst/vly locations will end up a few degrees north of
normal.
Weak troffing and a return to onshore flow will bring some coastal
low clouds back to the area on Friday morning. Otherwise, it will
be a partly cloudy day as some high clouds drift in from the west.
The switch to onshore flow will knock 2 to 4 degrees off of the
temps across the csts/vlys. The interior, however, will continue
to warm.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...22/306 AM.
A very weak system will pass through the center of the state on
Saturday. It does not have much in the way of dynamics or
moisture and will only bring a slight chc of rain with the best
chc over the mtns. Even if it does rain it does not look capable
of producing anything more than a tenth of an inch of rain. It
will bring plenty of clouds and cooler temps. Max temps should
cool 4 to 8 degrees and highs across the csts/vlys will only be in
the 60s.
Weak ridging will arrive on Sunday and will bring dry conditions,
clearing skies and 1 to 3 degrees of warming.
Mdl consensus begins to fall off on Monday. The general consensus
is that there will be a trof to the north of the area and fairly
strong SW flow over Srn CA. The GFS is most aggressive with the
trof and SW flow and some its ensembles are wet. Still not enough
to include rain in the fcst, but still a greater than zero chc.
Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy as mid and high clouds
stream in with the SW flow. Warm air advection from the SW flow
will bring 1 or 2 degrees of warming despite the increased cloud
cover.
Not the best mdl agreement on Tuesday, although if you throw out
the GFS it is much better. All mdls show an upper low in the
general vcnty of Srn CA. All mdls save for the GFS are dry
(including the AI-GFS) but quite a few GFS ensemble members are
wet and this is enough to force some slight chc pops into the
Tuesday forecast. Better confidence that it will be a mostly
cloudy day with max temps 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.
&&
.AVIATION...22/0603Z.
At 0512Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor marine inversion.
Good confidence in TAFs with only a 15 percent chc of MVFR conds
at coastal sites from 11Z-17Z.
KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 15 percent chance of
5SM BR BKN025 conds 11Z-17Z . Good confidence in no significant
east wind component through the period.
KBUR...Good confidence in TAF.
&&
.MARINE...22/306 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) levels this morning. This afternoon through
Friday night, high confidence in SCA level northwest winds.
Additionally, there is a 20-30% chance of GALE force winds tonight
with short period choppy seas, south of Point Conception.
Saturday through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels through this morning. This afternoon
through Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds in the
afternoon and evening hours. Saturday through Sunday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels through this morning. This afternoon
through tonight, high confidence in SCA level winds across all
the southern Inner Waters. Thursday through Friday, there is a
50-70% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the
Santa Barbara Channel in the late afternoon and evening hours. For
Saturday through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
AM PDT Thursday for zones 650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RAT/KL
SYNOPSIS...Munroe
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
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