018
FXUS66 KLOX 292103
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
203 PM PDT Tue Apr 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...29/138 PM.
Night through morning low clouds and fog coverage will increase
through Friday. Cooler and cloudy conditions with showers and
gusty winds are expected over the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...29/137 PM.
High confidence in seasonally low impact weather through Friday
with relatively small day to day changes in temperatures. Some
buildups have already developed across the mountains with a 10 to
20 percent chance of showers across the higher mountains,
especially the Ventura County mountains today and continuing each
day through Friday.
A weak trough will pass through the region Wednesday and
Thursday, leading to a much deeper marine layer with low clouds
pushing well into coastal valleys if not lower mountain passes
during this timeframe with patchy fog and drizzle possible,
especially for valleys and south facing foothills. This type of
pattern will support gusty but probably sub advisory winds focused
across the interior Wednesday and Thursday afternoon in
particular. A reverse clearing pattern is possible Wednesday and
Thursday where low clouds linger in the valleys and especially
foothills longer than at the coast on those days.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...29/137 PM.
High confidence in an unseasonably strong storm to push through
the region this weekend with gusty northwest to onshore winds, but
low confidence in precipitation amounts (if any) and timing.
Widespread advisory level winds will be possible sometime Saturday
into Sunday including many coastal areas. Where precipitation does
occur it will likely be under a quarter of an inch (except up to
around a half of an inch in the mountains), with the Central Coast
to mountains the most favorable to receive light amounts. Snow
levels will largely be between 5000-7000 feet, although may dip to
around 4000 feet Saturday night into Sunday morning with light
accumulations generally above 5000 feet. The unusually cold (but
moisture starved) system for this time of year will support a 10
percent chance of a thunderstorm over the mountains and deserts.
Any thunderstorms that do form could be slow moving, leading to
locally heavier rainfall with embedded hail or graupel. It will
feel much like a mid winter storm temperature wide with highs only
in the 50s to low 60s for most (10-20 degrees below normal). A
late season frost is possible for the coldest interior valleys
Sunday or Monday mornings. Otherwise seasonably quiet weather with
rebounding temperatures is likely early next week, although
theres a 20 percent chance of some shower activity lingering into
early Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...29/2102Z.
At 1659Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1500 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was around 3200 feet with a temperature of
17 C.
High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KWJF, and KPMD. There is a 10%
chance for LIFR to IFR conds at KPRB after 10Z.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for remaining sites. South of Point
Conception, most sites should see IFR conds before 10Z, then MVFR
after as the Catalina Eddy strengthens overnight. For KSMX and
KSBP, there is a 20 and 30% chance respectively that sites will
remain IFR or greater through the period. There is a 30% chance
for LIFR conds at KBUR/KVNY any point after cigs arrive before
15Z. Timing of flight cat changes could be off +/- 3 hours, but
high confidence in arrival of cigs late tonight.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs may arrive as soon as 00Z
or as late as 04Z. There is a 30% chance cigs remain OVC010 or
greater through the period once they arrive. Otherwise, flight cat
changes may be off +/- 3 hours. There is a 30% chance cigs scatter
between 18Z and 00Z Wednesday. There is a 30% chance of an east
wind component of 8 kt 12Z-18Z.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of LIFR
conds once cigs arrive until 15Z. Cigs may arrive as soon as 06Z
or as late as 11Z.
&&
.MARINE...29/200 PM.
In the outer waters, good confidence (60% chance) that Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) conds will continue much of the time thru
Wed morning in the northern zone (PZZ670) and in the southern two
zones (PZZ673/676) thru tonight (60% chance). There is a 30%
chance that SCA conds will continue thru late tonight or early
Wed for the southern two zones. SCA conds are not expected across
the outer waters Wed night thru early Fri. SCA conds are likely
(>80% chance) Fri afternoon thru Sun night, with a 50% chance of
GALE force winds Sat afternoon/night.
In the inner waters N of Pt Sal, SCA conds are likely (50%
chance) this afternoon/eve. There is a 40% chance of SCA level
winds Wed afternoon/eve. SCA conds are not expected Wed night thru
Fri morning. SCA conds are likely (70% chance) in the
afternoon/eve hours Fri through Sun, with a 40% chance GALES Sat
afternoon/eve.
In the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 30% chance of SCA level
winds in western portions during the afternoon/eve hours today
and Wed. SCA conds are not expected late Wed night thru Fri
morning. SCA conds are likely (70% chance) during the afternoon
thru late night hours Fri through Sun, with a 40% chance of GALES
across western sections Sat afternoon/eve.
In the southern inner waters, SCA conds are not expected thru
Sat morning, then are likely (70% chance) beginning in the the
afternoon Sat and continuing thru Sun.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday evening
for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for
zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Munroe
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...30
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
Copyright © 2025 | WordPress Theme by MH Themes