254
FXUS66 KLOX 100413
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
913 PM PDT Tue Jun 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...09/154 PM.
Temperatures will rise to up to 15 degrees above early June
normals by Wednesday. Minimal day to day temperature changes are
expected through Friday, except for a large cool down Thursday on
the Central Coast. Then a slow but gradual cooling trend is
likely this weekend into early next week. Expect minimal marine
layer clouds through at least Wednesday and potentially Thursday
before becoming more widespread through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...09/827 PM.
***UPDATE***
High temperatures today rose into the low 80s to low 90s across
the valleys and interior, while the coast stayed cooler in the
low to mid 70s. The forecast remains on track for a significant
warmup heading into Wednesday as onshore flow weakens and high
pressure builds. While the inland extent of marine layer stratus
and fog will be minimal Wednesday morning, stratus and patchy fog
will remain possible over the immediate coasts and coastal waters.
Warm conditions will continue into Thursday and Friday for most
locations with the exception of the Central Coast, which will see
a notable decrease in temperatures to close out the week. Winds
have begun ramping up across Southwest Santa Barbara County, the
Western Santa Ynez mountains, and the I-5 Corridor and will
persist into early Wednesday morning.
***From Previous Discussion***
June gloom will disappear for most of the area (save for the
southern portion of the LA Basin) Wednesday and potentially
Thursday thanks to offshore trends in pressure gradients. Then
a rapid return of the gloom is expected Thursday night to most
coasts and some of the lower coastal valleys.
The aforementioned offshore trends combined with a rapid increase
in 500 mb heights going into Wednesday will bring about a fairly
sharp increase in temperatures region-wide, with most noticeable
warming across the Central Coast. Heat advisories have been issued
for the interior coasts of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo
counties for Wednesday, and Wednesday only. High temps are
expected to reach 12-18 degrees above normal for these areas,
elsewhere will commonly see up to 10 degrees above normal for
early June. Increasing onshore flow Thursday on top of (or
technically underneath) slightly weaker ridging will allow for
most areas to cool down up to a few degrees south of Point
Conception, with a much more dramatic decrease (4-8 degrees) for
the Central Coast. Temperatures will then fluctuate +/- 3 degrees
Friday, but more or less remain fairly similar to Thursday.
While temperatures remain the premier focus in the near term,
gusty northwest to north winds have warranted wind advisories for
Sundowners over the western Santa Ynez Range and over the I-5
Corridor tonight through Wednesday morning. Winds are generally
expected to max out in the 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph range.
Some gusty but sub-advisory level winds will be common elsewhere
across interior mountains Tuesday night. Then fairly typical
early June onshore flow is expected through Friday.
One notable possibility, albeit a very low (5% chance), is for a
shower or thunderstorm to develop over southern portion of the
forecast area, particularly the eastern San Gabriel mountains
Friday afternoon through evening, with similar chances Saturday.
PWATs will increase to near 1-inch as some moisture from the south
is projected to surge into SoCal. There is also some instability
in the area as a weak upper low meanders off the coast of Baja
California, but most model projections favor any
thunderstorm/shower activity to remain south and east of Los
Angeles County.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...09/154 PM.
As mentioned in the short term section, there exists a small
chance for shower or thunderstorm activity over the eastern San
Gabriel Mountains Saturday afternoon through evening.
Gradual and minor cooling is expected Friday into early next week
across much of the area, but day-to-day changes will be less than
noticeable. Persistent onshore flow will drive the daily cooling
as ridging is favored to persist through the extended period.
June gloom should be in full force this weekend into early
next week across the coasts and lower coastal valleys in the
overnight through morning hours. While winds are generally not
expected to be significant, there are some ensemble members
suggesting increasing Sundowner wind activity towards the end of
the weekend and early next week. This could scour out the marine
layer in southern Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties.
&&
.AVIATION...10/0230Z.
At 2209Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 1500 ft deep. The
inversion top was at 3700 ft with a maximum temperature of 19 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF, but winds may be
off by 5 kt at times.
Moderate to low confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 15-25%
chance of cigs at KSMO, and KLAX between 10Z-15Z Wed, and a 60%
chance at KLGB.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecast, and there is a
25% chance of BKN005 to BKN015 cigs between 10Z-15Z Wed. Any east
wind component is expect to be less than 6 kt.
KBUR... High confidence in TAF.
&&
.MARINE...09/912 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. High confidence in a combination of Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas through Wednesday. Localized
gale force gusts will be possible over all of the outer waters
early tonight. Otherwise, SCA winds and seas are likely to
persist through Wednesday night, with much weaker winds Thursday
through Saturday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. SCA level winds will likely fall
below SCA levels tonight, increasing again Wednesday afteroon.
Seas will be near or above SCA levels through Wednesday night.
Thursday through Saturday, winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. There is a 40% chance for isolated
Gale force gusts over the west portion of PZZ650 early tonight.
For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in
winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Friday. The
exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel,
with a SCA in effect through late tonight. Light winds are then
expected Wednesday through Saturday.
&&
.BEACHES...09/912 PM.
A High Surf Advisory is in effect for beaches along Malibu
through Thursday. At 1 PM PDT Tuesday, latest report from Zuma
indicated swell height around 7 to 10 feet at 19 seconds. A Beach
Hazard Statement remain in effect for the Ventura County Beaches
through Thursday evening. A long period south swell will continue
to move through the waters Today through Thursday, with swell
height building to 3 feet nearshore. Periods around 20 seconds,
decreasing to 15 seconds by Thursday. Surf is forecast to build to
4 to 7 feet with local sets to 7 to 10 feet along south facing
shores of Los Angeles County Beaches, and 3 to 6 feet for Ventura
County Beaches.
Hazardous surfing and swimming conditions are expected due to the
building surf, along with strong rip currents.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for
zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM to 7 PM PDT
Wednesday for zones 341-347. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM PDT Wednesday for
zones 349-351-378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday evening
for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT
Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Wednesday for
zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Fewkes/Lewis
AVIATION...Phillips/Velez
MARINE...Phillips/Velez
BEACHES...Phillips/Velez
SYNOPSIS...Lewis
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
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