746
FXUS66 KLOX 210543
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1043 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026
.SYNOPSIS...20/841 PM.
Another heat wave is coming this week, peaking Thursday, but
remaining well above normal into early next week. There is
potential for major or extreme heat concerns for at least the
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...20/840 PM.
***UPDATE***
The region remains in southerly flow with high pressure centered
over Colorado, and the remnant tropical system are both helping
to bring plenty of humidity to the region. Some spotty showers
developed as a result, but no significant accumulations occurred.
Over the next few days, high pressure will strengthen over the
region, leading to developing heat. Winds will be fairly tame
across the region through Tuesday afternoon, aside from the
typical breezy onshore winds for the Antelope Valley. However,
Tuesday night sundowner winds may reach advisory levels for the
Santa Ynez Range, reoccurring Wednesday and Thursday night.
Current forecast looks on track, but cut back marine layer clouds
a bit in the short-term as high clouds may impede stratus
development. Lower confidence in the marine layer forecast for
tonight into tomorrow morning, and clouds and patchy fog may be
very short- lived.
***From Previous Discussion***
A fairly complicated weather scenario this week into early next
week, but the screaming message is IT`S GOING TO BE VERY HOT, and
our warm ocean temperatures will definitely be playing a roll as
they have the last several weeks. An assortment of heat advisories
and Extreme Heat Watches have been issued, most areas starting
Wednesday, except the Antelope Valley beginning Thursday. The
coastal valleys will potentially have two starting points, the
first being the Heat Advisory for Wednesday, and the second being
the strong possibility of the Extreme Heat Watch converting to a
Warning.
The warm ocean, in the lower 70s in the SM Bay and mid 60s from
Ventura to Monterey, is pumping a lot of relatively warm air
onshore, keeping lows in the mid to upper 60s south of Pt
Conception and mid to upper 50s up north, and also maintaining
high humidities during the the afternoon which adds an additional
component to the heat risk calculation.
So for Tuesday, very little change from today. Expecting less in
the way of clouds tomorrow as Elida continues moving north out of
area. However, there will be an increasing influence from Fausto
which is currently southwest of Baja. Most of the ensemble models
show PW`s lingering around 1.5" through Wednesday, then slowly
decreasing but remaining well above normal through Friday.
The next heat wave is expected to kick in starting Wednesday,
peaking in most areas Thursday, except in the Antelope Valley
peaking on Friday with highs 6-12 degrees above normal. And
perhaps just as important if not more so, overnight lows will
continue to run 5-10 degrees above normal.
In addition, another round of gusty Sundowner winds is expected
across southern Santa Barbara County, strongest Wednesday evening,
pushing another round of hot air to the coastal areas there
Wednesday and Thursday.
With the combination of the strong high pressure aloft, along with
weakening onshore flow and well above normal humidities everywhere
except for the far interior areas, moderate to major levels of
heat risk are expected the next several days. It`s strongly
recommended that outdoor activities are confined to the early
morning and evening hours during this heat wave.
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...20/124 PM.
Overall, minimal changes in the weather pattern into early next
week. Increasing moisture from Fausto is possible over the weekend
and depending on the track could introduce increasing clouds and
or moisture into the area which may result in either slightly
cooling temperatures due to cloud cover or a small possibility of
showers, mainly mountain areas. But the most likely forecast is
for well above normal temperatures and humidities to continue
through at least early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...21/0543Z.
At 0515Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 1800 ft with a max temperature of 25 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, KWJF, and KPRB.
Low confidence in the TAF for KSMX with a 40 percent chance of no
low clouds.
Moderate confidence in the remaining TAFs with a 25 percent chc of
IFR/LIFR cig/vis 12Z-16Z.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF with a 25 percent chance of 2SM
OVC005 conds 12Z-16Z. No significant east wind component
expected.
KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.
&&
.MARINE...20/943 PM.
Conditions are generally expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) levels through this morning. Northwest winds will
strengthen, rising to SCA levels by the afternoon, and will
likely continue through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
Chances also increase for SCA level west to northwest winds in
the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel during the same
time.
A series of moderate period southerly swells will move through
the waters through the week and likely beyond, along with a long
period southern hemisphere swell arriving late this week. These
swells may impact south facing harbors, including the Port San
Luis area.
&&
.BEACHES...20/840 PM.
Over the eastern Pacific, the remnants of Tropical Storm Elida
are forecast to continue moving north-northwest well off the
California Coast. In addition, Hurricane Fausto, located 700 NM SW
of southern Baja, will move ENE between 15 to 20 N latitude
through the next 5 days or longer. This system will produce
additional, moderate period southerly swell that will begin to
move into the waters late Tuesday. High Surf Advisories and Beach
Hazards Statements are in effect this evening through Tuesday
night.
Finally, an incoming long period, southern hemisphere swell
arriving later this week/ Thursday night will contribute to
continued and potentially more hazardous beach conditions late
this week and next weekend. Additional High Surf Advisories
and/or Beach Hazards Statements will likely be needed during this
time.
Looking beyond the forecast period, a series of tropical systems
are forecast to develop off the coast of Mexico and move to the
northwest, likely producing multiple rounds of southerly swells
over the next couple of weeks.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT
Monday for zones 38-348-351>353-368. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for
zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for
zones 88-356>358-369>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through
Monday evening for zones 88-356>358-369>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon
for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT
Thursday for zones 349-350. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Thursday morning through
Monday evening for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT
Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT
Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Phillips/MW
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Lewis/Ciliberti
BEACHES...Lewis/Ciliberti
FIRE...Kittell
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
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