454
FXUS66 KLOX 102202
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
302 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
.SYNOPSIS...10/1054 AM.
Tropical Storm Rachel is expected to track well south of Los
Angeles County, but moderate to damaging coastal flooding impacts
are very likely to continue into at least early next week.
Periods of light to moderate rain/showers and a low chance of
thunderstorms exists into early next week, peaking Sunday.
Temperatures will cool region wide through the weekend and into
early next week. Another warm up with the potential for offshore
flow is likely Wednesday into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...10/1054 AM.
Tropical Storm Rachel is still forecast to track well south of
Los Angeles. The most significant impacts over the short term
will almost certainly be due to coastal flooding. Please refer to
Beaches section as well as CFWLOX for further details on coastal
flooding issues.
An upper level low pressure system siting about 450 miles
southwest of Los Angeles will be responsible for quite a bit of
cooling today thanks to cooler air aloft as well as pretty
widespread cloud coverage and some increasing onshore flow. There
remains a slight chance of showers and a 5-10% chance of
thunderstorms across the area through this evening, mainly focused
south and east of Point Conception. Best chances exist in Los
Angeles and Ventura Counties, with lower chances westward. However
as the upper low moves to the east tonight, it will tap into more
of Rachel`s moisture as it approaches the northern Baja
California Coast, bringing a likely chance of fairly steady light
to moderate rain across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties through
Sunday morning and into the afternoon hours. Another upper level
low will drop down through California on the heels of the previous
low, which will turn our steadier rainfall into a more showery
pattern Sunday evening through Monday.
As far as rainfall goes, it appears the majority of our rainfall
totals will come from the "first" system from late tonight into
Sunday afternoon. In general we are expecting light to moderate
rainfall totals and rates. Further details on the rain are below.
We are also expecting fairly breezy conditions for much of
southwest California, especially in the mountains and deserts of
eastern Los Angeles County. There will be a very sharp uptick in
onshore pressure gradients Sunday morning along with the upper
level influence of the second upper low dropping down south. A
wind advisory has been issued for the San Gabriel Mountains as
well as the Antelope Valley for Sunday, with gustiest winds
expected during the afternoon through late evening hours.
Otherwise, much cooler temps will bring a relief to many after a
long stretch of very hot weather.
Some details to note:
- PWAT anomalies, associated with moisture from Rachel, will
be 150-300% of normal.
- PWATs will decrease on Monday.
- There will continue to be a 5-10% chance of thunderstorms
through Monday.
- Rain totals today through Tuesday:
- LA County: generally 0.25-1.00 inches except 1.50-2.50
inches over the San Gabriel Mountains (locally 3.00).
- Ventura County: generally 0.10-0.50 inches with
locally higher amounts possible over the mountains.
- SBA/SLO Counties: generally under 0.25 inches.
- Rainfall rates: generally under 0.25"/hour, but local rates
up to around 0.50"/hour will be possible for LA County.
Some recent higher resolution guidance suggests some rates
in the Eastern San Gabriels may slightly exceed
0.50"/hour.
- LA and Ventura Counties are under Marginal to Slight Risk
for Excessive Rainfall on Sunday.
As has been stressed over the last few days, any changes in the
track of Tropical Storm Rachel could bring noticeable changes to
the expected rainfall for the area. So, stay tuned for the latest
details.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...10/1054 AM.
Wednesday will be more or less be a transition day from the
cooler, active pattern to a warming and drying trend which will
likely continue into the weekend. An upper level ridge of high
pressure will build over the area and by Thursday we could see 500
mb heights reach 585-590 dam. Offshore flow is also poised to
develop and these features will combine to bring this rapid
warming and drying to southwest California. Widespread moderate
heat risk is likely for the coasts and coastal valleys Thursday
through the weekend, with low chances of major heat risk. The
magnitude of temperatures will likely depend on the magnitude of
the offshore flow, but a weak to at least locally moderate Santa
Ana Wind event is likely.
&&
.AVIATION...10/1824Z.
At 1724Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 1500 ft with a temp of 23 degrees Celsius.
Moderate confidence in TAFs. For sites north of Point Conception,
timing of flight category changes could be off by +/- 3 hours.
For sites south of Point Conception, a few showers may occur
between 19-22Z today. Then rain timing in TAF may be off by +/- 3
hours, with heavier periods of rain possible. Highest chances for
rain will be Sunday morning. There is a 10% chance of tstorms
through the period.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. A few showers are possible
between 19-22Z today. Otherwise, timing of showers this evening
through tomorrow could be +/- 3 hours of current forecast, with
heavier periods of rain possible. There is a 10% chance of
tstorms through the period. Bkn015-025 may be associated with
rain. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. A few showers are possible
between 19-22Z today. Otherwise, timing of showers this evening
through tomorrow could be +/- 3 hours of current forecast, with
heavier periods of rain possible. There is a 10% chance of
tstorms through the period. Bkn015-025 may be associated with
rain.
&&
.MARINE...10/213 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. High confidence in a combination of at least SCA level
winds and seas into Tuesday, however lower confidence in winds
Sunday. Winds will increase to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels
today, potentially lasting into Sunday night. On Sunday, there is
a 30% chance of Gale Force winds early in the morning, then there
winds are expected to drop below SCA levels Sunday evening.
However, steep seas of 10+ feet will build this afternoon and last
into at least early Monday morning and possibly into Monday
evening. On Tuesday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds
around Point Conception with winds remaining below SCA levels
elsewhere.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Through Tuesday, SCA level winds are expected
(mainly during the afternoon and evening hours) with seas
approaching SCA levels on Sunday and Monday.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. From this evening through Sunday
evening, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds and seas.
For Monday through Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels for most of the southern Inner Waters.
The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara
Channel with a 50% chance of SCA level winds late Tuesday
afternoon through Tuesday evening.
Periods of light to moderate showers are likely through Tuesday,
with highest confidence for Sunday-Monday. There is a 10% chance
of thunderstorms during the same time frame. While showers or
thunderstorms are possible anywhere, highest chances exist south
of Point Conception.
Long period swell from the west and the south are affecting the
coastal waters, and can create a confused sea state. This can
make boating more challenging and dangerous, especially for small
vessels.
&&
.BEACHES...10/301 PM.
Earlier this morning, LA Harbor Tide Gauge reported a peak of 7.7
feet, approximately 1.6 feet above predicted astronomical high
tides. The leading edge of moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel
is moving into the coastal water this afternoon, with a 10-20
percent chance of thunderstorms across the local beaches of
LA/Ventura counties.
A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the beaches of Los
Angeles County (including the Malibu Coast and Catalina Island)
through 3 PM Sunday. DAMAGING sea-water coastal flooding is
likely through Sunday, especially near the Sunday morning high
tide where anticipated tide levels are expected to be around 8
feet. The most likely areas for DAMAGING coastal flooding on
Sunday morning will be vulnerable south-facing beaches due to the
expected combination of very high level tide levels around 8 feet
(including additive effect of low barometric pressure and onshore
winds gusting to 15 to 25 mph), high surf of 5 to 8 feet, and
light to moderate rainfall. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE
EXPECTED COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ON SUNDAY MORNING FOR
VULNERABLE SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LA COUNTY COULD BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON, INCLUDING THOSE SEEN
WITH Marcie.
For all other beaches and harbors of LA county, shallow with
minor to moderate sea- water flooding will likely impact beaches
and walkways, especially with the Sunday morning high tide which
could cause local damage to most vulnerable locations such as
Venice. For all beach areas, significant erosion is expected.
There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Dangerous and life-
threatening rip currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to
sea. Large breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off
beaches and rocks, and capsize small boats near shore. The projected
high tides of around 8 feet for Sunday morning would approach or
exceed recent record tide levels for LA county. Large secondary
high tides are also expected each evening.
For beaches from Ventura County northward, minor to moderate
coastal flooding will be likely near times of high tide as well as
periods of elevated to high surf and strong rip currents.
In addition to the Coastal Flood Advisory for Ventura County,
Coastal Flood Advisories have been added for the Central Coast
and southern Santa Barbara coast. For Ventura county, there is the
possibility of localized damage across low-lying areas during the
Sunday morning high tide, along with the threat of significant
sea spray and and some water on pockets of PCH between Point Mugu
and Sycamore Cove.
A very complex series of swells from the south, west, and
northwest will impact our coastlines into at least early next
week. Energy from Tropical Storm Rachel, southern hemisphere
swells, northwest swells, and local wind swells will add up with
each other to produce the aforementioned coastal impacts. Please
continue to monitor the forecast.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Warning in effect until 3 PM PDT Sunday for
zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 3 PM Sunday to 2 PM PDT
Tuesday for zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late tonight for
zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 6 AM Sunday to 10 PM
PDT Monday for zones 340-346-349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM Sunday to 10 PM PDT
Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon
for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Tuesday for
zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM to 10 PM PDT Sunday
for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect from 5 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday
for zones 378>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Sunday for
zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Monday for
zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Lewis/Thompson
AVIATION...KL
MARINE...RAT/KL
BEACHES...Gomberg
SYNOPSIS...Lewis
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
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