302 FXUS66 KSGX 010446 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 946 PM PDT Thu Apr 30 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure to the south will contribute to high level clouds across the region for the remainder of the day into the evening. Weak high pressure over the region on Friday and Saturday will lead to a warming trend with high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Low pressure off the coast will move inland, leading to cooler and breezier conditions starting Sunday into the first half of next week. This system has a low chance to bring light rain showers to areas from the mountains to the coast on Monday and Tuesday. Fair and warmer weather is expected by the middle and end of next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .Evening Update... Satellite imagery reveals a healthy deck of low clouds just offshore. The afternoon sounding indicates that the weak low pressure system passing to our south has allowed the marine layer to deepen a bit, as expected. Also, winds gusting 25-40 mph along desert slopes and into deserts currently will slowly subside through tonight. The forecast remains largely on track with a weak transient high pressure expected to bring seasonably warm weather this weekend. Also, little has changed in terms of next week`s closed low pressure system. .Previous discussion issued at 2 PM 4/30... A 568 dm area of low pressure is currently moving over the northern Baja California coast. This is leading to scattered high level clouds across the southern portions of our forecast area. Elevated winds out of the west can also be expected later this afternoon and evening across the mountain slopes into the deserts with winds gusting near 25-40 MPH. This system will continue to push eastward throughout the day as a weak area of high pressure takes its place. This will lead to warmer weather for your Friday with high temperatures warming another 5 degrees over all with similar temperatures expected on Saturday. The marine layer will continue to be fairly deep with low clouds expected each morning for parts of the coastal basin. Models are in good agreement in a closed low descending from the north over the weekend. This system looks to move somewhere not far off the SoCal coast by Sunday, pushing inland Monday and Tuesday. As the system approaches the region on Sunday, temperatures from Saturday to Sunday will lower around 5 to 10 degrees across all areas. The weather system will also increase winds across the region, with widespread westerly wind gusts 25-45 MPH across the mountains and deserts each afternoon and evening. As the system moves over SoCal, there will be the chance for light rain to occur from the coast to the mountains. The system`s moisture profile continues to look limited, so chances for precipitation is near 15-25% for these areas. There may be drizzle/light showers by Monday morning, but the best chance for rain across the region will be on Tuesday as the core of the system passes by. Accumulations look light to none, highest across the coastal slopes of the mountains. Models start to struggle a bit by the middle and end of next week regarding the weather system mentioned above. Some want to delay the system into Wednesday, others do not. Regardless, after the weather system passes, a weak ridge will move in its place, bringing warmer and drier weather for the end of next week with less wind. && .AVIATION... 010400Z....Coast/Valleys...Areas of BKN-SCT low clouds with bases 1500-2500 ft MSL have developed along the immediate coast. Low clouds will become more widespread, filling in much of the coastal basin 10-12Z. There is a 40% chance of cigs below 1000 ft MSL developing at KONT 12-15Z Fri. Low clouds will clear to the coast 16- 18Z, with the potential for BKN low clouds to linger along the immediate coast through 20Z. Low clouds will become more widespread after 03Z Sat. .Mountains/Deserts...Areas of elevated westerly winds 20-30 kts, with gusts to 40 kts through mountain passes and into adjacent deserts through 10Z Fri. Areas of up/downdrafts and isolated LLWS in lee of mountains. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through Fri. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR/KW AVIATION/MARINE...CO
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