699
FXUS66 KSGX 230826
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
126 AM PDT Tue Jun 23 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Strengthening high pressure to the east will bring a warming trend
through Wednesday with moderate HeatRisk for the deserts. Mid
level moisture in southerly flow aloft will bring a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms for this afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon for the mountains of San Bernardino and Riverside
Counties east and northeastward across the deserts of southern
California. This will be followed by a cooling trend for Thursday
through the weekend. Southwest to west winds for the mountains and
deserts will strengthen through Saturday with gusts on Saturday
to 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 65 mph in the northern Coachella
Valley below the San Gorgonio Pass.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
High pressure to the east will continue the warming trend today
with slight additional warming of high temperatures on Wednesday.
High temperatures on Wednesday will range from a few degrees above
average near the coast to 4 to 8 degrees above average inland.
High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the lower to mid
70s near the coast to the 90s for the Inland Empire with 108 to
112 for the lower deserts. Tonight will be much warmer as well
with low temperatures for early Wednesday mostly in the 80s for
the lower deserts. The marine layer will remain around 2000 feet
deep with night and morning coastal low clouds extending inland
into portions of the western valleys late each night.
Southerly flow between a weak upper level low pressure system off
the southern California coast and high pressure centered near El
Paso will allow some mid level moisture to be drawn northward into
portions of southern California into Wednesday. There is 20 to 30
percent chance for showers and thunderstorms for this afternoon
through Wednesday afternoon, mainly for the mountains of San
Bernardino and Riverside Counties northeastward across the Mojave
Desert. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for precipitation has a
large shift of tails for tonight through Wednesday afternoon for
this area, most likely a reflection of a few relatively wetter
ensemble members during the climatologically driest time of the
year for portions of southern California.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
A low pressure system moving southward just off the coast of
British Columbia will strengthen the onshore slow across southern
California into the weekend. Southwest to west winds for the
mountains and deserts during the afternoon and evening will
strengthen for Thursday through Saturday with gusts on Saturday of
30 to 40 mph with gusts to 65 mph in the northern Coachella
Valley below the San Gorgonio Pass. The marine layer will deepen
with night and morning coastal low clouds spreading farther into
the valleys late each night.
There will be a cooling trend through the weekend with high
temperatures on Sunday as much as 15 degrees below average for
the mountains and inland valleys. High temperures on Sunday will
range from around 70 near the coast to mid 70s to lower 80s for
the Inland Empire with the mid 90s to 102 for the lower deserts.
High temperatures for Monday of next week will be a few degrees
warmer.
&&
.AVIATION...
230530Z...Coast/Valleys...Low clouds with bases 1000-1500ft MSL have
infiltrated the coastal areas and will continue to increase in
coverage and push inland, up to 15 miles, over the next few hours.
Bases are expected to lower 09-13Z up to a few hundred feet. Lower
visibilities of 3-6SM can be expected where clouds intersect
terrain. Clouds will scatter and retreat to the coast 15-18Z. Low
clouds return after 03Z Wednesday with similar bases.
Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period
with periodic high clouds AOA 15000 ft MSL after 19Z.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Surf will increase Tuesday through Thursday with the arrival of a 3
foot 15 to 18 second period south swell from 190 to 210 degrees.
Surf of 4 to 6 ft is expected. Expect locally hazardous swimming
conditions and strong rip currents through the week. Please see the
Beach Hazards Statement for more details.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A low pressure system moving southward just off the coast of
British Columbia will strengthen the onshore slow across southern
California into the weekend. Southwest to west winds for the
mountains and deserts during the afternoon will strengthen for
Thursday through Saturday with gusts on Saturday of 30 to 40 mph
with gusts to 65 mph in the northern Coachella Valley below the
San Gorgonio Pass. Lowest humidity for the lower deserts will fall
to around 10 percent for Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon with
near critical fire weather conditions for the deserts onto the
desert slopes of the mountains for Thursday and Friday afternoon
and early evening.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM PDT Tuesday through Thursday
evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County
Coastal Areas.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...Villafane
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