000 FXUS66 KLOX 310106 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 506 PM PST Mon Jan 30 2023 .SYNOPSIS...30/244 PM. Rain and mountain snow showers will taper off this evening. Gusty Santa Ana winds will affect wind prone areas tonight through Wednesday, strongest on Tuesday. Near to below freezing temperatures expected each morning through Thursday, coldest on Wednesday. Daytime temperatures will increase through Wednesday or Thursday, but remain below normal. Light rain possible north of Santa Barbara Friday, then again Saturday night into Sunday. Gusty north winds possible Monday and Tuesday next week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...30/156 PM. A closed and cold upper level low pressure system, currently centered about 200 miles south-southeast of Santa Barbara, will continue to push toward the southeast and into northern Baja by Tuesday morning. As this system pushes further to the south, it will carry the shower activity along with it and out of the area by later this evening. Until then, slightly unstable air currently getting into Orange County will push northward and likely bring additional showers into the early evening, especially over Los Angeles County and the waters up to Santa Barbara. Any of these showers may bring 5 to 10 minutes of brief heavy rain, small hail, and even a lightning strike. With snow levels still in the 3,500 foot neighborhood, brief heavy snow showers are also possible mainly over the Los Angeles County Mountains. Slippery roads for the afternoon commute should be expected, especially over Los Angeles County. Will keep the Winter Weather Advisory going over the interior Los Angeles County Mountains, but end the other advisories as the threat for impactful snow accumulations is on the decline everywhere else. The threat for the I-5 Tejon Pass is still present through the early evening, but it too is on the decline. As the focus on precipitation decreases, the focus will turn to the wind and cold. Northeast winds are already forming thanks to strengthen winds aloft (due to the position of our current storm system), and the healthy -7 offshore millibar trend over the last 24 hours. These trends will increase tonight into Tuesday, setting up a moderate Santa Ana wind event. Ensemble solutions have locked into an event of the peak gusts to 30 to 50 mph variety over most of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, while weaker but still breezy winds will continue over the SLO coast and hills tonight. This will dry us out quickly, and push daytime temperatures into the 60s south and west of the mountains. Would expect a few extra power outages and a weakly rooted tree or two to come down. These winds will weaken by around 10 mph Tuesday Night and Wednesday. A cold air mass will linger behind our system, and with fast drying due to the offshore flow, night-time / early morning temperatures will be downright frigid. Wednesday looks to be the coldest, with the best combination of clear skies, dry air, and less wind. Interior valleys and mountains will be the coldest, with lows commonly in the 20 to 30 degree range. This includes the Antelope Valley, which could dip below 20 degrees for several hours Tuesday morning (20% chance) or Wednesday morning (50% chance). A Hard Freeze Watch will be issued for Wednesday morning. The other interior areas should stay above 20 and since they all have already had more than 2 freeze events, will not be considered for any frost freeze hazards. On the coastal side of the mountains, several areas will be flirting with freezing temperatures. The Central Coast and area around Ojai have the best chances, and a Frost Advisory and Freeze Watch will also be issued to cover that. More areas will likely need frost advisories for Wednesday morning. Early morning temperatures will remain cold but improved on Thursday as a narrow high pressure ridge forms aloft. This should bring temperatures up to almost normal away from the beaches. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...30/217 PM. The majority of projections are showing a trough of low pressure pushing into northern California early Friday, with a cold front pushing down the coast. By all indications, this front will dissipate somewhere over southwest California. As such, the potential for any rain decreases drastically further to the south. Taking the hint from the various ensemble models (EPS GEFS CCMC), those chances decrease quickly from San Luis Obispo County (50 percent) to Los Angeles County (10 percent). The most likely scenario keeps any rain north of Santa Barbara. If rain materializes, it will be light, with only a 10 percent chance of reaching 0.50 inches for San Luis Obispo. Another weak system looks to impact the area in a similar way Saturday night through Sunday, with any rain likely staying north of Santa Barbara. Between those two systems, weak offshore flow is possible on Saturday with a narrow ridge aloft. As a result, Friday through Sunday looks rather mild temperature-wise. Fairly high confidence of gusty north winds forming Sunday Night through Tuesday (70 percent chance of gusts over 35 mph in the mountains). Initially, lingering moisture may bring light showers to the north mountain slopes Sunday Night through Monday morning. Otherwise it should be clear and dry. Temperatures are very uncertainly however. The ECMWF ensemble 500 millibar heights give a great picture of that, with the range of possible outcomes between 550 decameters (cold) and 575 decameters (sort of warm). We will have to see what shakes out. && .AVIATION...31/0106Z. At 0005Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor a sfc based inversion. Good confidence in Cig/Vis fcst (LA county sites may hold on to the VFR cigs for a few hours longer than fcst). Moderate confidence in wind fcsts. NE winds may start 2 hours earlier than fcst. KLAX and KSMO may get 5 kt NE wind 11Z-18Z. Gusty winds may create UDDFS, lgt-ocnl mdt turbc and LLWS 12Z-18Z. KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of 06006kt winds 11Z-18Z. KBUR...Good confidence in Cig/Vis fcst (SCT conds may not arrive until 09Z) There is a 30 percent chc of 06025g35kt winds 13Z-18Z. && .MARINE...30/144 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For PZZ670/673, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels today through Friday. For PZZ676, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through tonight. On Tuesday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level northeast winds. For Tuesday night through Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels today through Friday. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For tonight through Tuesday morning, there is a 70% chance of SCA level easterly winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica. Therefore, a SCA has been issued for the inner nearshore waters from Ventura to Santa Monica. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Friday. There is a 50-60 percent chance of gusty winds reaching the front side of Avalon Harbor between 3 am and 10 am Tuesday. The winds are expected to reach 15 to 25 knots with 3 to 5 foot wind waves. There is the possibility of isolated thunderstorms today across the coastal waters south and east of the Channel Islands. Any thunderstorms that develop will produce brief gusty winds, rough seas, small hail and dangerous cloud to surface lightning. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST Tuesday for zones 53-54-88-358-359-363-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 8 PM PST this evening for zone 54. (See LAXWSWLOX). Hard Freeze Watch in effect from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for zone 59. (See LAXNPWLOX). Frost Advisory in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM PST Tuesday for zones 340-341-346-347-356-357. (See LAXNPWLOX). Freeze Watch in effect from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for zones 340-341-346-347-356-357. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 6 PM PST Tuesday for zones 354-355-362. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Kittell AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Sweet/RAT SYNOPSIS...RK weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
Winter Storm Warning
...winter Storm Warning Remains In Effect Until 10 Am Pst Tuesday... * What...heavy Wet Snow. Additional Snow Accumulations Of 1 To 4 Inches Between 3500 And 4000 Feet, 4 To 8 Inches Between 4000 And 5000 Feet, 8 To 12 Inches Above 5000 Feet, With Isolated Amounts Over 1 Foot On The Highest Peaks. Winds Gusting As ...Read More.
Effective: January 30, 2023 at 12:59pmExpires: January 31, 2023 at 10:00amTarget Area: San Diego County Mountains