SD Forecast Discussion

198
FXUS66 KSGX 301437
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
637 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will continue into Saturday with temperatures well
above average. Locally gusty offshore winds will continue through
this period in the mountains and foothills as well. Slightly cooler
weather can be expected by Sunday and Monday as a weak area of low
pressure moves closer to the region. High pressure regains control
for the middle and end of next week, bringing more warm weather with
additional periods of Santa Ana winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Clear skies were being observed across the area as of 6 AM, with
temperatures in the 40s and 50s, locally into the mid-30s in wind
sheltered locations. Places were the winds are already breezy are
seeing temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Peak wind gusts since
midnight have been 35 to 45 mph, with a few local gusts up to 55 mph
in wind prone locations. A similar uptick in winds are expected
tonight into Saturday, with more emphasis on foothills and canyons
prone to easterly winds. Winds will slowly diminish into Saturday
afternoon.

In addition to offshore winds an area of high pressure will build
and expand over the Desert Southwest with 850 mb temperatures
peaking near 15C. High temperatures across SoCal will locally go
over 15 degrees above average. High temperatures are expected to
peak on Saturday, with widespread highs over 75 degrees for the
coast; over 80 degrees for the  valleys and low desert,; upper 60s
to low 70s in the mountains; and 70s in the High Desert.

A weak low will form to the south, bringing increasing onshore flow
and subtle cooling to the area by Sunday and Monday. Even with the
cooling, temperatures will still be well above normal for early
February at 5 to 10 degrees above normal. This "reprieve" will not
last long though, as the ridge from this weekend becomes
reinvigorated and anomalously strong as it parks itself over the
western part of the country by the middle and end of next week. This
will bring another period of dry and warm weather. NBM forecast
points to highs returning into the 80s across inland valleys with
highs in the 60s/70s from the beaches into the high desert and
foothill regions. Something we will also be watching is going to be
additional rounds of elevated Santa Ana winds. As the area of high
pressure moves northward into the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest,
an area of low pressure will form to our south. The movement of
these systems will act to funnel desert air into Southern
California, increasing offshore flow by next Wednesday and Thursday.
Model ensemble guidance points to a potential elevated to moderate
Santa Ana wind event by this time, where highest winds would be over
mountains/passes of San Diego and Riverside Counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
301030Z...Mostly clear and VFR conditions today and tonight. Areas
of northeast wind gusts 25-35 kts will continue in foothills and
below mountain passes into adjacent valleys.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Elevated surf will combine with the high tide this morning,
increasing the risk of strong rip currents and minor tidal overflow.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM

NWS SGX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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