646
FXUS66 KLOX 012155
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
255 PM PDT Wed Apr 1 2026
.SYNOPSIS...01/223 PM.
Cooler than normal conditions will continue through Thursday, with
significant warming Friday through Sunday. Gusty north winds on
Thursday will be followed by a moderate to locally strong Santa
Ana wind event Friday through Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...01/253 PM.
Besides a few scattered light showers tonight, and some showers on
the north mountain slopes on Thursday, the rain is over for the
week.
A cold low pressure system currently off the Washington Coast,
will push through the Pacific Northwest on Thursday and dive into
Utah on Friday. This will drive our winds for the rest of the
week. Gusty onshore winds will turn to northwest to north
Thursday and Thursday Night. Winds will be focused over the usual
areas like the I-5 Corridor, Antelope Valley, Los Padres NF and
southern Santa Barbara County. Wind Advisories are in effect for
those areas, with gusts of 35 to 50 mph common. As the low dumps
cold air into Utah, the winds will quickly shift to northeasterly
and expand on Friday. Despite the relative nearness of this Santa
Ana event, there remains an unusually large range of outcomes in
the projections in terms of how strong this event will be. The
most likely outcome is for a moderate-to-locally strong event, as
the model consensus shows a large west-to-east pressure gradient
swing (from +4 millibars Thu morning to -5 millibars Fri morning),
but it really could go either way. With all that considered,
issued a High Wind Watch for the areas that have the highest
chances for damaging wind gusts of 60 to 65 mph. Considered
issuing a Wind Advisory for most of Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties, as well as northwest San Luis Obispo County, but with
the added uncertainty decided to wait on that. The winds will
remain gusty through Saturday, but Friday is the likely peak.
While the offshore winds are screaming, high pressure aloft
settles over the region. With these two ingredients in place, look
for yet another warm up Friday and Saturday. The NBM forecast is
ultra conservative and often struggles with temperatures for
offshore wind events. Highs in the 80s to lower 90s look pretty
certain by Saturday, including coastal areas. While this is warm,
now that we are in April it is only 8 to 15 degrees above normal.
As a result, the chance for any Heat Advisories is very small,
and all the calendar day records look safe.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...01/254 PM.
Offshore winds will weaken on Sunday, but with the ridge still in
place, it will remain warm.
On Monday a trof will push the ridge to the east and hgts will
fall. The offshore flow turns onshore and this will lead to 3 to 6
degrees of cooling across the board. Despite this cooling max
temps will end up 4 to 8 degrees above normal.
There is some disagreement on the upper level pattern on Tuesday.
The GFS has more of a trof like pattern while the EC favors
ridging. The ensembles lean towards the EC and brings 2 to 4
degrees of warming to most areas.
The AI-GFS is dry through the next 14 days. The AI-EC however does
show a system in the area around the 11th. Both mdls continue to
indicate continued above normal max temps.
&&
.AVIATION...01/1749Z.
At 1646Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. CIGs and VIS will
likely vary mostly MVFR to VFR especially during morning hours as
clouds/mist form in the wake of last night`s rains. Some sites
could fall occasionally to IFR conditions.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. CIGs and VIS expected to vary
MVFR to VFR through forecast period. No significant east wind
component expected.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. CIGs and VIS expected to vary
MVFR to VFR through forecast period. No wind impacts expected.
&&
.MARINE...01/1253 PM.
There is a chance of spotty showers through early Thursday morning
north of Point Conception.
Widespread strong Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are expected
on Thursday across the majority of the coastal waters. There is
a moderate chance (30-50%) for low-end GALES across the Outer
waters late Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours. Local
gusts to 35 knots are also possible across western portions of
the Santa Barbara Channel.
Expecting seas to build quickly on Thursday, peaking Thursday
night. Seas could reach SCA levels 10-12 feet over the outer
waters and inner waters north of Point Sal. Seas for the southern
inner waters could peak around 4 to 7 feet. Wave heights should
drop off rather quickly as winds shift to the northeast Friday
morning.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT
Thursday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect from 11 PM Thursday to 5 AM PDT
Friday for zones 352-353. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Watch in effect from Friday morning through Friday
afternoon for zones 369-375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM PDT Friday
for zones 375>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect from noon to 11 PM PDT Thursday for
zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT
Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone
650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday
for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Thursday to 11 AM
PDT Friday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 11
AM PDT Friday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RK/RK/Rorke
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...RK
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion