743
FXUS66 KLOX 070630
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1030 PM PST Tue Jan 6 2026
.SYNOPSIS...06/237 PM.
Strong northerly wind will pick up Wednesay evening through
Thursday evening, strongest across the mountains but gusty
conditions reaching the coast. Mostly dry conditions are expected
for the next week. Friday through the weekend, warmer conditions
are expected with moderate Santa Ana winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...06/740 PM.
***UPDATE***
An upper level low was a few hundred miles SW of the forecast
area this evening and is forecast to move E toward northern Baja
overnight and inland over this area on Wed. Moisture wrapping
around the upper level low and a weak surface low in generally
the same area will spread a few showers into southern L.A. County
overnight with perhaps a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall in
spots. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies over much of the region this
evening will turn partly cloudy by late tonight and continue into
Wed.
***From Previous Discussion***
Wednesday night, a relatively dry and cold trough will cut into
the region. Strong upper level winds, cold air advection, and
surface pressure gradients will combine to fuel a significant
northerly wind event. A High Wind Watch has been issued for most
mountain areas and the Antelope Valley from Wednesday evening
through Thursday evening, where wind gusts of 50-65 mph are
possible. Wind Advisories are likely to be issued for many coast
and valleys areas, including the Santa Barbara South Coast,
Central Coast, Santa Clarita Valley, San Fernando Valley, Malibu,
San Gabriel Valley, and the LA Coastal Plain including Downtown
LA. There is a small chance of mountain wave activity in coast and
and valley areas, mainly across LA Count. With this activity,
unusually strong winds may locally reach the surface in areas that
are typically not very windy, with speeds briefly of similar
strength to what is expected across the mountain areas.
With the northerly winds, there is a moderate chance of
precipitation across the northern facing mountain slopes. 1 to 3
inches of snow will be possible above 5000 feet and a dusting will
be possible as low as 4000 feet.
By Thursday night, the wind direction will shift from northerly
to northeasterly. This will start a long duration moderate Santa
Ana Wind event, that will bring warmer temperatures and drier
conditions. Santa Ana Winds are expected across the typical wind-
prone corridor, focused over LA and Ventura Counties, all the way
into mid next week. However, due to the many recent rains, Red
Flag Warnings are NOT in consideration, despite the weather
conditions becoming dry and windy. All the recent rains will yield
a greater risk of downed trees and powerlines, as the soils are
so recently saturated.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...06/235 PM.
This weekend into mid next week, the area will see periods of
moderate strength Santa Ana Winds, with dry conditions and lots
of sunshine. At this point, winds look to be strongest on Friday,
with some Wind Advisories possible across the typically windy
Santa Ana Corridor. Temperature will warm up for the weekend,
becoming largely above normal on Sunday with many highs in the
low 70s. Overnight low temperatures will get quite cold across
wind sheltered areas, as low humidity and clearer skies will
enhance overnight cooling. The far interior will see temps in the
upper 20s and lower 30s each night, while wind sheltered valley
locations will see lows in the 40s.
Still no signal for significant rain until late January.
&&
.AVIATION...07/0552Z.
At 0518Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer and no inversion.
Good confidence in most TAFs. There is a 30 percent chc of LIFR
conds at KPRB 11Z-17Z. There is a 20 percent chc of a shower at
KLAX 14Z-18Z.
KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chance of
6SM -SHRA BKN050 conds 14Z-18Z. Any east wind component will be
under 8 knots.
KBUR...High confidence in TAF.
&&
.MARINE...06/1029 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Tonight through Wednesday morning, high confidence in
winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels.
From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, high confidence in a
combination of SCA level winds and seas (peaking in the 12-15 foot
range). Additionally, there is a 50% chance of Gale force winds
south of Point Conception Wednesday night and Thursday. For
Saturday through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Wednesday
morning, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels. For Wednesday afternoon through Friday, high confidence in
a combination of SCA level winds and seas. For Saturday through
Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For tonight and Wednesday morning,
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. From
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening, high confidence in
SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara
Channel with winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere.
For Friday through Sunday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level
northeast winds from around Point Mugu down to Santa Monica and
across the San Pedro Channel. Elsewhere, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels Friday through Sunday.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Watch remains in effect from Wednesday evening
through Thursday evening for zones 352-353-376>381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM Wednesday to 2 AM
PST Friday for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 4 PM Wednesday to 9 PM
PST Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM Wednesday to 2 AM
PST Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from late Wednesday night through
Thursday evening for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/Sirard
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Phillips/RAT
SYNOPSIS...CC/RS
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion