281
FXUS66 KLOX 301829
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1029 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026
.SYNOPSIS...30/234 AM.
Very warm conditions will continue through the weekend, with high
temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Cooling with dense
fog will bring a brief break around Monday, with warming again
starting Tuesday or Wednesday. Gusty Santa Ana winds will be
common through Saturday, and again Tuesday through Thursday of
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...30/1021 AM.
***UPDATE***
Skies have mostly cleared out this morning, and a very warm dry
day is expected. Heat may approach calender day records for some
coast and valleys sites. Warm and very dry conditions are still
on track with no major changes to the forecast with this update.
***From Previous Discussion***
Weak to locally moderate Santa Ana winds will continue through
early Sunday, with only minor day-to-day changes. While winds will
be similar to a touch weaker than Thursday, ended up issuing
another low-end Wind Advisory for today for just the windiest
locations of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. These winds could
knock around some unsecured objects and create a few hazards on
the roads. When combining these winds with an upper-level ridge
of high pressure, which will peak today, temperatures will remain
very warm for January - making us the envy of the rest of the
country. Look for highs in the upper 70s and 80s common for most
of the coastal and valley areas through the weekend, with today
likely being the warmest and Sunday the least warm. A few records
are possible today, as forecast highs are within a degree or two
to the calendar day records for LAX, Downtown LA, Long Beach,
Burbank, Woodland Hills, and UCLA. With the very dry airmass,
overnight temperatures will be cool to mild, except for where the
winds stay up. With this daily nighttime relief, Heat Advisories
will not be needed.
Cannot completely discount some very localized coastal dense fog
forming on Sunday, as the offshore flow quickly weakens, but that
threat seems more favorable for Monday.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...30/307 AM.
High pressure aloft will weaken Monday through early Tuesday,
while offshore pressure gradients and winds turn near neutral.
This will cause temperatures to drop a few degrees compared to the
weekend, but all areas should remain well above normal with highs
generally in the 70s. Dense fog with very low visibility is
likely to impact some coastal areas, but unsure exactly how much
of the area will be affected.
This trend will reverse course once again Tuesday through Thursday
as offshore flow and upper level ridging returns. The majority of
the ensembles favor wind speeds similar to a touch stronger to our
current wind event, as gradients look similar but there is a
little more upper level support. Expecting a few more Wind
Advisories and temperatures pushing back into the 80s. There is a
good consensus for a trend towards onshore flow and a cooling
airmass for Friday, but there is no clear signal for just how
much.
There are no rain chances through Friday February 6. Chances
increase a little after that, peaking in the February 9th through
14th window at about 50 percent. The vast majority of the ensemble
solutions that show rain have light amounts, with a slim minority
showing more significant amounts. The past couple of signals like
this two weeks out ended up fizzling away into dryness, so not
putting too much stock in this potential. With that pessimism
established, there is at least something to hope for if you are
looking for precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...30/1815Z.
At 1729Z, there was a surface-based inversion up to around 1000
feet with a temperature of 21 C.
High confidence exists in the current forceast, except for a
20% chance of VLIFR conditions at KPRB from 13Z-17Z Fri. There is
a chance of moderate LLWS across LA and Ventura Counties after 03Z
Sat, and gusts speeds may be off by 5 kt during peak winds at
KCMA, KOXR, and KVNY.
KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a
10% chance of the east wind component exceeding 6 kt from 08-17Z
Sat.
KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is
a chance of moderate LLWS after 03Z Sat.
&&
.MARINE...30/1018 AM.
For the Outer Waters and the nearshore waters along the Central
Coast, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) seas are expected to drop off
late this afternoon through Saturday. Saturday night through
Tuesday SCA conditions are likely to return.
Inside the southern California bight, areas of SCA level north to
northeast winds are expected for the nearshore coastal waters off
the Ventura County Coast to Malibu each morning through Saturday.
The highest chance of SCA conditions will be from around Point
Mugu south and east to Pacific Palisades. Winds and seas should
drop below SCA levels on Saturday and continue at or below SCA
levels through the weekend and into Tuesday. A return of SCA level
northeast winds is possible between Tuesday night and Thursday.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon for
zones 88-374-375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RK/Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Hall/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...RK
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion