999
FXUS66 KLOX 181211
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
411 AM PST Tue Nov 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...17/451 PM.
A cooler storm system will continue to spread rain across the
area through tonight, mainly across Ventura and Los Angeles
Counties. Lingering showers may continue into Tuesday. Wednesday
will offer a brief respite from the rain with warmer temperatures.
Another storms is slated to arrive next Thursday and linger into
Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...18/358 AM.
With more breaks in the clouds this morning, and a cool air mass
overhead, very patchy but potentially dense fog could form in the
colder valleys this morning.
The core of the low pressure system that brought steady light to
moderate rain over the region on Monday, is now between Monterey
and San Luis Obispo. This low will slowly move through the area
through Wednesday. For today, scattered showers will prevail,
focused over the Central Coast and far southeast LA County this
morning, likely increasing in coverage and intensity this
afternoon as the low moves overhead. This is the most unstable
portion of the storm, so there will likely be a couple of
thunderstorms and/or heavy showers. These showers will likely be
small in size, which will limit the flood potential. With that
said, since the flow aloft is not very strong, some of the heavier
cells may move very slowly. If this happens over a burn scar,
some shallow debris flows could form, but none of all the model
guidance we have show rates exceeding 0.6 inches per hour. So we
have to believe that the threat of significant debris flows and or
flooding is very small - therefore no Flood Watches are planned.
With many areas nearly saturated however from all the recent rain,
it will take less than usual rain to have at least minor to
moderate flooding, rockslides, or mudslides. That is where the
focus will be.
As the low marches to the east, the flow turns northeasterly on
Wednesday, but the moisture is still around. Would expect a few
wrap-around light showers coming from the east and hitting the
back side of the mountains.
With snow levels around 5,000 feet, any showers that do develop
over the mountains would result in a few inches of snow and some
road issues.
The next storm is on track to bring widespread rain Thursday or
Thursday Night, with some showers on Friday. There remains a range
of outcomes in terms of rain amounts, intensities, and impacts.
While this storm will not be nearly as wet as the storm we had
this weekend, as mentioned before, it will take less rain than
usual to get significant runoff and impacts.
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...18/357 AM.
Showers may continue through Friday as the low pressure center
associated with the Thursday rain moves through. The most likely
outcomes is for rain totals for Thursday through Friday to fall in
the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range, with 1 to 2 inches in the favored
mountains and hills. There are still about 30% of the projections
that favor double those amounts, which includes some of the AI
models that have shown some skill with the recent storms.
The vast majority of our projections show a big change in the
weather starting this weekend, with drier and warmer conditions
through the Thanksgiving holiday week.
&&
.AVIATION...18/1210Z.
At 12Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer.
Low to moderate confidence in TAFs. MVFR to VFR conds will
prevail, altho there is a 10-20 percent chance of at least brief
LIFR or lower cigs/vsbys. Where it does occur, flight category
improvements are likely between 16-18Z. -SHRA indicates 20-40
percent chance of showers and timing may be off by 2 hours.
There is a 10-20 percent chc of a TSTM through 21Z KSBA and
north and 20-02Z elsewhere.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-40 percent chance
of -shra through 02Z. There is a 10 percent chc of a TSTM 20-02Z.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-40 percent chance
of -shra 19-02Z. There is a 15 percent chc of a TSTM 20-02Z.
&&
.MARINE...18/117 AM.
For the waters from southwest through northwest of the Channel
outside the southern California bight and the nearshore waters
along the Central Coast SCA seas will persist through this
afternoon. Winds and seas will likely fall below SCA levels for
Wednesday and return late Thursday (50-70 percent chance) with
SCA winds continuing into at least Friday and SCA seas through the
weekend.
Inside the Southern California Bight, conditions will likely
remain below SCA levels for Wednesday and Thursday, then there is
a moderate (30-50 percent) chance of SCA conditions developing
late Thursday or Friday.
There is a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms across the
coastal waters through this afternoon, focused south of Point
Conception in the afternoon. Any thunderstorms that develop will
be capable of producing brief heavy rain, small hail, dangerous
cloud to surface lightning, gusty and erratic winds, locally rough
seas, and possible waterspouts.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for
zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM PST
this evening for zones 377-380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Kittell
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...Munroe/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Smith
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion