000 FXUS66 KSGX 261120 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 420 AM PDT Tue Sep 26 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to the south will bring warming into Wednesday with high temperatures a few degrees above average for the lower deserts and still a few degrees below average for the coast and valleys. Onshore flow will begin to strengthen on Thursday with a large low pressure system strengthening over the western states through the weekend. The weekend will be much cooler, as much as 15 to 20 degrees below average for the mountains and inland valleys. The marine layer will deepen onto the coastal slopes of the mountains for the weekend with drizzle or light showers possible during the nights and mornings for the coast to the coastal slopes of the mountains and a slight chance for afternoon and evening showers, mostly near the mountains. There will be stronger and gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts for Friday through Sunday with the strongest winds on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)... High pressure to the south will bringing warming today and slight warming on Wednesday with high temperatures in the lower deserts warming to a few degrees above average and remaining a few degrees below average for the coast and valleys. A low pressure system moving inland through the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday will strengthen the onshore flow across southern California on Wednesday night and Thursday. This will bring cooling on Thursday with high temperatures a few to around 5 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Night and morning coastal low clouds will remain fairly patchy into Wednesday morning with the greatest coverage near central and southern portions of the San Diego County coast. A coastal eddy for Wednesday night into Thursday will bring greater coverage of low clouds for coastal areas with the low clouds spreading northward into Orange County. && .LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)... A low pressure system will strengthen over the western states bringing cooling for southern California through the weekend. High temperatures for Sunday will be around 15 to 20 degrees below average for the mountains and inland valleys and only reaching the lower 80s in the lower deserts. The marine layer will deepen onto the coastal slopes of the mountains for the weekend with drizzle or light showers possible during the nights and mornings for the coast to the coastal slopes of the mountains and a slight chance for afternoon and evening showers, mostly near the mountains. Stronger onshore flow will bring stronger and gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts for Friday through Sunday with the strongest winds on Saturday. ECMWF ensemble output has the strongest winds late Saturday afternoon and has trended stronger with the winds. On Monday, the low pressure system will begin to weaken with a warming trend for Monday into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... 260930Z...Coast/western valleys...Areas of low clouds will continue to form with bases around 1200 feet MSL and tops to 1600 feet, more likely in San Diego County. Local vis on inland extent of clouds reduced to 3-5SM. Scatter out by 17Z. Low clouds with similar bases to redevelop after 02Z and gradually increase in coastal areas overnight into Wednesday. Otherwise mostly clear today and tonight. Inland Valleys/Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear skies today and tonight. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE...MM
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