El Nino 2014?

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El Nino 2014?

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     I'd say the *developing* El Nino is not having any impact on these unusual occurrences...because El Nino hasn't developed yet! 
sstaa
     This chart shows the observed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly this past winter was in the "neutral" range:  neither warm nor cold.  The projection into this summer, fall and winter is for warming that *could* develop into a warm phase known as El Nino, but it hasn't happened yet!
 
     I think the recent unusual occurrences are more likely a result of the local/regional weather and water condition rather than the larger-scale impact typically seen with El Nino. 
 
    Here is another sign that SST anomalies across the equatorial Pacific were actually on the cool side to what would be considered "neutral" during December-February, with the local waters along the Mexican mainland coast into the Sea of Cortez, far removed from where we determine the status of El Nino, were warmer than normal.
anomp.2.3.2014
That shows us through this past winter we were still following the trend of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) Neutral:  Neither colder nor warmer than normal. 
 

     The projections for an upcoming El Nino are primarily centered on the late summer/fall/winter of 2014/2015.  With that in mind, I don't think we can blame anything recently on El Nino.  As indicated, the local/regional weather pattern through the winter, producing relatively storm-free and light wind conditions for January and February, led to a lack of upwelling, which normally keeps the surface water cooler.

    

     Now if we can just figure out if THIS will be the year the albacore return to waters close to San Diego...

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